Man kann in einer Rezension das Gesamtgeschehen nicht zusammenfassen, dazu ist es zu komplex. Man kann höchstens das Faß anstechen. Fest steht, die Weltordnung ist dabei, sich zu verändern und wir sollten uns durch Zeitunglesen und Sachbuch so umfassend informieren wie möglich. Weil es uns alle angeht. Serhii Plokhy endet mit den Worten: „Unter enorm hohen Kosten und mit einem gewaltigen Blutzoll ihrer Bürger beendet die Ukraine die Ära russischer Dominanz in einem großen Teil Osteuropas und stellt Moskaus Anspruch auf die Vormacht im restlichen postsowjetischen Raum infrage.“ Historians, used to slow-burning research projects, have so far been absent from this developing historiography of the war. This is beginning to change, and it is only appropriate that the lead is taken by one of the most accomplished English-language historians of Ukraine, Harvard University’s Serhii Plokhy. Der Verfasser erzählt und erklärt mit Herzblut. Er macht deutlich, dass sich die Welt verändert hat und Moskau sich nicht mehr alles erlauben kann. Er sagt aber auch, dass es ein Fehler der freien Welt war, auf die Annexion der Krim bloß mit lauwarmen Worten zu reagieren, nur um Russland nicht zu erzürnen, denn, „mit der Annexion der Krim wurden Imperialismus und Nationalismus zu zentralen Elementen und Triebkräften der russischen Außenpolitik“. Ebenso war es ein krasser Fehler, der Ukraine auf dem Bukarest-Gipfel 2008 den Weg in die Nato zu verweigern, denn dadurch war die Ukraine, die zuvor auf ihr Atomwaffenarsenal verzichtet hatte, schutzlos. Doch die Souveränität der Ukraine ist wichtig für Europa und für den Frieden in der ganzen Welt. Plokhy stellt natürlich auch dar, wie sich China positioniert, wie die USA, wie Indien, der ferne Osten, die europäischen Länder - und erklärt auch warum. An illuminating account of the war in Ukraine - its historical roots, its course, its possible outcomes - from the bestselling, award-winning author of Chernobyl US supplies of sophisticated weapons such as long-range artillery systems have driven Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Putin has long railed against American hegemony and called for a “multipolar” world. Plokhy believes the war has taken us into a new age of superpower rivalry. Its poles, however, are Washington and Beijing. Moscow is China’s weaker and poorer partner.

Either way, “a lot depends on it”. This year started, he says, with “the realisation that things will be decided on the battlefield more than they will be decided at the negotiating table. On the battlefield there were two questions: the outcome of the Russian winter offensive; and the outcome of the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive. We have the answer to the first question. Nothing came out of the Russian offensive.” Now the second question is about to be answered. It may prove a turning point for the whole war. Before my first reporting trip to Ukraine, one of my seasoned war correspondent colleagues had two pieces of advice. First, not to miss the delicious coffee and pastries you can find in Kyiv (which is a wonderfully reassuring thing to hear as you head off towards a conflict). Second, that it was absolutely necessary to read Serhii Plokhy’s 2015 book The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. I did, and it unwound 2,500 years of complex, fascinating and often tragic events, all the way from Herodotus’s accounts of the ancient Scythians to the Maidan protests in Kyiv a decade ago. Now Plokhy and I are speaking by Zoom – me from London, he from his home near Harvard, where he is professor of Ukrainian history. He’s in his study. There are globes on every surface, and antique maps of Ukraine hang on the walls.But soon he began to change his mind. History, after all, is a weapon in this conflict. Vladimir Putin’s justification for his aggression towards Ukraine is rooted in his (twisted and faulty) understanding of the past. He even wrote a sprawling, inaccurate essay laying out his views in 2021, titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians. Plokhy began to feel compelled to fight the Russian president’s terrible history writing with good, solid history writing of his own.

The invasion, and its accompanying atrocities, have made any simplistic Elon Musk-style “Crimea for Donbas” deal impossible for years to come. Anything can happen now: a sudden victory for Ukraine, a long and bitter stalemate, the overthrow of Putin, all-out nuclear war. This impressive and valuable book can’t tell us which. But it is a clear, reliable and (in the circumstances) remarkably calm account of how we got here. Ukraine nationalists can point to a number of instances when Russia said Ukraine was independent; their opponents can also find many instances when the answer was otherwise. It's impossible for a layman to determine when an assurance is credible and when it is not. I suspect that even experts on diplomacy and international relations have no clear criteria to measure credibility. Until that time when we can determine whether an assurance is in good faith, its a "She says – He says" dilemma.

I'm glad I read Serhii Plokhy's 'The Russo - Ukrainian War : The Return of History'. It is insightful and detailed and makes us think a lot.