I’m interested to see how this is applied in holding fossil fuel companies to account in future, and securing compensation for natural disasters. Along with the vast body of data Otto has compiled to present the case for a changing climate, she argues that science needs to go beyond those “large-scale averages” to consider the effects of climate change on a storm-by-storm, drought-by-drought basis. They threaten decades of development gains, and they pose a clear and present danger to the social and economic welfare of communities and countries around the world.

Summary: A description of the use of attribution science to assess the probability that anthropogenic-caused climate change is a factor in particular extreme weather events. Using peer-reviewed mathematical modelling, within three weeks the team estimates that climate change makes an event like Harvey three times more likely at the current state of change.While it may rain more on average in the warmer atmosphere, the altered circulation may mean that fewer low-pressure systems develop or that they enter a particular region less frequently. Read more about the condition New: A new, unread, unused book in perfect condition with no missing or damaged pages. I highly recommend this book which is both easy to read (because it is well written) and hard to read (because of what we learn). Przeczytałem dużo pozycji dotyczących zmian klimatu, każda traktowała o delikatnie innym aspekcie naszej działalności wobec globalnego ocieplenia. Through rapid attribution studies, which provide timely scientific evidence showing the extent to which climate change influenced a given event, WWA has helped to change the global conversation around climate change, influencing adaptation strategies and paving the way for new sustainability litigation.

It is, however, not this abstract measure of temperature that will cause loss and damage from climate change: instead, it is the impacts of climate change, which primarily manifest through rising sea levels and the changing risks of extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves, extreme precipitation), which often lead to large scale damage. She details how they isolated the variable they would look at, which in this case was rainfall amounts. It is tragic that we seem – at least in the Anglo-Saxon culture – to put so much more weight on loss of property than loss of habitat or life even, but that bias can be turned to our advantage. Attribution science – climate forensics, or reverse engineering – is a new discipline explained in this book with passion and verve by one of its creators. Secondly, and more importantly, disentangling predictable drivers of an extreme event like climate change from natural variability and changes in vulnerability and exposure will allow a better understanding of where risks are coming from, and in turn how they can be addressed.

For one thing, studies like the one on Harvey, are published in real-time, and only subsequently in journals that are peer-reviewed. No one will ever make insurance not boring, but bless Otto for putting it near the end of the book, because it was nonetheless an interesting look at how finances could help alleviate damage. There are times when the fingerprints of climate change cannot be detected, and that’s important too. Spätestens seit Gigerenzer wissen wir doch, dass man sehr aufpassen muss, wenn man über Wahrscheinlichkeiten redet und nicht missverstanden werden will. Bill McKibben, author of Falter and The End of NatureTied with Hurricane Katrina as the costliest cyclone on record, Hurricane Harvey caused catastrophic flooding and over a hundred deaths in 2017.

They now can figure out how much climate change has impacted events like drought, heat waves, extreme rainfall. Archived internal notes show that they did not doubt the scientific evidence but decided to publicly deny it to keep their businesses going. Dieses Buch war sprachlich sehr verständlich geschrieben (keine schwurbeligen Formulierungen), hatte an jeder Stelle einen argumentativen Zweck (kein Bullshit), war schnell gelesen (konzise) und überzeugend.Ich weiß gar nicht, wo anfangen: Ich weiß immer noch nicht, was genau "attribution science" macht, außer irgendwie Wahrscheinlichkeiten mittels Modellen zu ermitteln und daraus kausale Schlüsse zu ziehen. Most climate scientists observe long term trends and the impacts these have as inputs to weather systems.