Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland could reach as low as -3C (26.6F). The south of England and Wales could see about two inches of rain on Thursday and Friday, and the Met Office is warning of possible thunderstorms, flooding and travel delays. This means that even though average temperatures are expected to increase, cold will remain a significant public health problem in the years to come. Protecting communities and public services from adverse weather Although there is a long term increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in the UK as we go through the century, as shown by the white line in the graph above, in any individual realisation (or ensemble member, as shown by the red line) the number of events per year remains erratic much like the observational record. As our climate warms, it is notable quite how variable the number of events becomes year to year. Another concern is apparent sudden transitions to a much higher frequency of extreme events illustrated by the model output. This would suggest a sudden increase in the numbers of extreme rainfall events, outside of the experience of recent decades. If this scenario did happen it could lead to impacts where infrastructure was unprepared for such a change in our weather.” It’s really important to reinforce that the harm to health associated with adverse weather is not inevitable. There are things we can do all year round, and during periods of adverse weather, to minimise the impact.

Cloudier at first in the west. Isolated mist or fog patches elsewhere soon clearing. Then mostly dry and bright with long sunny spells, although the odd shower may continue to clip Kent coasts. Feeling cooler. Maximum temperature 7 °C. Tonight: No risk of UV - It’s safe to stay outside. 1-2 Low - You can safely stay outside. Consider sunscreen in direct sunlight. 3-5 Moderate - Take care during midday hours and do not spend too much time in the sun unprotected. Sunscreen advised. 6-7 High - Seek shade during midday hours, cover up and wear sunscreen. 8-10 Very high - Spend time in the shade between 11am and 3pm. Shirt, sunscreen and hat are essential. 11 Extreme - Avoid being outside during midday hours. Shirt, sunscreen and hat essential. In addition to providing valuable information on the future risk of intense rainfall, the new research provides a pioneering new data set for climate attribution scientists to use to assess current rainfall events and how much more likely they will have been because of human induced climate change. The arrow shows the direction of the wind (up is north). If the arrow points from land to sea, the windWe also publish a series of ‘action cards’ advising the NHS, social care organisations and professionals about the actions they should take to keep the public healthy and safe under different levels of alert.

Professor Kendon explains: “The observed rainfall record in the UK is fairly erratic with a large amount of variability, these latest projections show that this is likely to continue through the century. What we can see from the higher resolution output is an even more erratic frequency of extreme events each year, so this could mean we see clusters of record breaking intense rainfall events, followed by a period when no records are broken. Despite the underlying trend, these pauses in the intensification of local rainfall extremes can last a surprisingly long time – even multiple decades.At 27ºC or over, people with impaired sweating mechanisms find it especially difficult to keep their bodies cool (for instance the very young, people with long term health conditions or older people, particularly people taking certain medications).

Adverse weather matters for our health: there is a strong evidence base showing us that periods of very hot or cold weather or flooding present a wide range of direct and indirect health risks. The arrow shows the average direction of the waves 1-2 miles out to sea. It indicates how sheltered the beach will be from these waves. If the arrow points towards land, most of the waves’ power will reach Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Steven Keates, said: “Many parts of the UK will see a very unsettled spell of weather through the second half of the coming week, into next weekend. A number of areas have the potential to see a lot of rain as well as strong winds at times. Of particular concern at the moment is eastern and central Scotland where some exceptional rainfall totals could build up, falling on ground already saturated after recent heavy rainfall. This could lead to some significant and widespread disruption. Many people might be wondering if a warming UK climate means that there will be less illness and death caused by cold weather in future.Heat, cold and flooding are linked to mental health problems for instance (in England, most of the health burden associated with flooding is due to the impacts of flooding on mental health and wellbeing, ranging from stress and anxiety to serious long-term impacts). Flooding also has extensive and significant impacts on health including direct effects like skin and gut infections from exposure to contaminated flood water. Feels like temperature considers other factors, such as wind speed and humidity. This gives you a better We know that climate change is making these problems worse, increasing the number of adverse weather events, with these events becoming more frequent and intense in the years ahead. The greater future increases in the number of extreme rainfall events in higher compared to lower resolution models shows the importance of having k-scale projections to enable society to adapt to climate change.”