With the bus station only a five-minute walk from the festival entrance, it's the perfect way to get there. By train, the station is also just a short walk from the festival and has regular train services.

The Seasonal Baker by Michelle Evans-Fecci | Hachette UK

In November you can focus your sales around election Day, Veteran Day, and Thanksgiving! Don’t forget that Thanksgiving celebrations are more than just on the day itself, office celebrations and Friendsgiving often take place the week before. November also marks the beginning of the advent calendar as well as the elf on the shelf. Chef Anna Shepherd and the Lea-Wilsons - the family behind Halen Mon sea salt - will demonstrate recipes from their new book which dives into one of the most important pantry items: A Celebraton of Sea Salt Masterchef: The Professionals star and 2020 ‘People’s Champion’ Santosh Shah serves up a delicious white fish curry - a recipe from his new book Ayla: A Feast of Nepali food from Terai, Hills and the Himalayas. Red Sauce Brown Sauce author and expert How to Make the Perfect… Guardian food columnist Felicity Cloake will be offering breakfast tips. Seasonal bakes and tips on growing your own produce by former The Great British Bake Off contestant, Michelle Evans-FecciThere are important caveats to our results. We made the decision to remove dummy variables in future projections so that annual variation in forced climate could flexibly determine transmission. However, this means our simulations do not account for non-climatic factors that may also structure transmission. We crudely tested this by using a common seasonal fixed effect which gave qualitatively similar results, reinforcing the robustness of our assumption. Developing a richer understanding of the mechanisms connecting climate to transmission would help validate our results further. Our model also does not take into account genetic sub-type of RSV 30 due to data limitations in the US and Mexico. We also do not consider age structure or potential secondary infections: secondary RSV infections are less severe 27. Nonetheless, we are able to capture the limit cycle structure of RSV dynamics well and elucidate multiple streams of evidence for a fundamental climate effect. The following day, grease and double line the cake tins, and wrap the outside of the tins with newspaper secured with string. With over 500 bakery locations in 40+ U.S states and in Canada, there's plenty of opportunity to join our family! The team behind one of Wales' top 10 restaurants Cora, Lee Skeet and Lily Griffiths, shows festival go-ers why their small but mighty 12-seater restaurant is worth the tasty trip. We consider the implications of our estimated climate effect for four locations in our dataset with exemplar dynamic patterns and timing of epidemic onset (Fig. 2b, c). In Fig. 2d we show the seasonal trajectories for these locations, with the mean monthly rainfall and humidity overlaid on our predicted transmission effect. Hennepin County, MN, an example of a location with biennial outbreaks, has large changes in predicted transmission over the course of the year, with maximum transmission in the winter months (Fig. 2c) when peak incidence also occurs (Fig. 2b). Kings County, NY, an example of a location with annual outbreaks, has a wintertime peak in predicted transmission driven by declining humidity, though not to the same extent as the biennial test case. In contrast, our model predicts that Miami-Dade County, FL, an example of a shallow-trough location, experiences peak transmission in the summer months driven by summertime rainfall. The dominance of the rainfall effect means that Miami experiences an increase in cases even as humidity increases, a reversal of the patterns observed over most US counties (Fig. 2b), which explains the early onset of the epidemic in this location.

Great British Bake Off star Michelle Evans-Fecci releases book

Understanding the climate drivers of infectious diseases has clear public health implications, often delineating our ability to predict the timing, location and magnitude of outbreaks both currently and in the future as the climate changes 1. Important steps have been taken to decompose the climatic drivers of vector-borne 2 and waterborne diseases 3, 4, and to develop projections for the future burden and geographical range of pathogens across climate change scenarios 5. Less attention has been paid to directly-transmitted infections, despite key work on influenza demonstrating the significant role climatic variables can play in driving the transmission of these types of infections. Experimental studies show that influenza transmission increases in conditions of low humidity 6, 7, 8. Observational studies in temperate climates support this finding; while in tropical locations, influenza peaks have been observed to occur in the rainy season when humidity increases 9, 10. The rapid evolution of the seasonal influenza virus and the consequent complexity of dynamics makes projections of future epidemics difficult 11, 12. In contrast, many major childhood infections exhibit more regular dynamics, making the long-term consequences of environmental drivers easier to dissect 13, 14, 15, 16. Wander around the market stalls - while marvelling at the stunning artistic hanging decor by Bettina Reeves and her team - offering produce and freshly-prepared food before settling down in the castle grounds to re-energise. There's even music and educational sessions taking place in the likes of the 'Local & Vocal Tent' and 'Ogi Dome' in the Castle. Climate projections data come from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Precipitation projections come from all CMIP5 models run under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Specific humidity is calculated from projections for temperature and relative humidity based on the multi-model mean, accessed via the KNMI Climate Explorer ( https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi). Employees at a franchised Nothing Bundt Cakes bakery location are employed by the franchise owner/operator and are not employees of Nothing Bundt Cakes Corporate (the franchisor). All inquiries about employment should be directed to the franchise owner/operator and not to Nothing Bundt Cakes Corporate. Each franchise owner/operator is responsible for ensuring compliance with local, state and federal law.

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How far in advance have you been promoting your sales? If you’re like many bakers, it’s a few posts about a week before your sale, and then you’re so busy baking that you can’t manage to create additional posts and promotions. Michelle grew up on a farm and learned from a young age how to grow vegetables and the basics of cooking and baking. She now lives in the beautiful seaside town of Tenby in Pembrokeshire with her husband Ben, their teenage son Alfie, little whippet Rosie, and two cheeky hens. As a family they love to be out in the garden where they grow a lot of the fruit, vegetables and herbs that Michelle uses in her everyday cooking. The book shows just how easy and rewarding it is to grow your own produce. From "Happy Birthday" to "Just Because," Nothing Bundt Cakes is committed to bringing joy to our guests and our communities and helping make every celebration sweeter! Each bakery offers a warm and welcoming work environment with team members who embody this joy-filled brand and possess a Servant's Heart, the Spirit of a Champion and the ability to make Genuine Connections. Robinson’s How To list offers practical, inspiring, bestselling guides to just about anything that anyone might want to do, from writing a wedding speech to learning to read music, and from training your dog to managing your money. We have books on everything from cookery, gardening, health and parenting to creative writing, property investment and do-it-yourself legal guides. Each book is written by an expert you can trust, to inspire as well as instruct. Recent stand-out titles include How to Raise the Perfect Dog by Adam Spivey and Cory Althoff’s The Self-taught Programmer.

Abergavenny Food Festival 2022: Top chef line up, stalls, how

Cookery titles published by Robinson include Cook This Book by Molly Baz, The Seasonal Baker by Michelle Evans-Fecci, Taste Kitchen: Asia by Philli Armitage-Mattin, The Green Batch Cook Book by Sam Gates; specialist medicinal cookery titles such as Donna Crous’s A Healthier Family for Life; and cooking appliance recipes books The Everyday Family Air Fryer Cookbook and Comfort Food From Your Slow Cooker. This is always a big month for bakers because of Valentine’s Day, But don’t forget about some of the other holidays that happen in February as well.

June marks the official beginning of Summer and can include themes for summer sports like camping, fishing, and swimming! Father’s Day is in June, as is Flag Day. The public health implications of changes to future RSV epidemic dynamics will depend on location-specific climatic changes. Precipitation-driven increases to epidemic intensity, caused by climate change or other large-scale climatic events such as the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation, will require increased surge capacity in locations that typically observe more uniformly distributed cases 31. Humidity-driven reductions to the seasonal change in transmission in other locations will result in persistent epidemics, meaning cases will occur outside of the typical “RSV season” requiring changes to the temporal allocation of resources. Changing dynamics can also alter the age of infection 36, 37. This consideration is important given that early RSV infections have been implicated in the later life development of asthma 17. Our modeling approach follows two steps 29. We first use the time series TSIR model, a discrete time adaptation of the SIR model 14, 41, to estimate the unobserved susceptible population for each location over time. Next, we use the estimated susceptible time series to construct an empirical transmission rate. The transmission rate is used as a dependent variable in a panel regression where the effect of climate is estimated. The TSIR model There are many things to celebrate in April including administrative professional stay, the Master’s golf tournament, Easter and Earth Day, as well as Major League Baseball and promposals!