Het stelsel van dekkingsgraden dat de Nederlandse inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten hanteren, is met dit model grotendeels in overeenstemming. In particular the SEES model with four phases: Situational awareness, Explanation, Estimates and forecasts and Strategic Notice.

Ormand then creates examples of using the analytical approach by applying the tools to world events and explains how the internet has made it easier for some to subvert arguments based upon structure, method and logic. How Spies Think’ by Sir David Omand is an insight into how senior intelligence officials make decisions, anticipate threats, maximise opportunities and build strategic partnerships.It is just an extension of critical thinking and moreover they listen to their enemy or event information with utmost care. The book leaps beyond sharing his extensive expertise and provides a compelling examination of today’s tenuous, often unpredictable landscape.

The consensual hallucination - group belief and telling our bosses what they want to hear not what they should hear. De wil om optimistisch te eindigen lijkt hier misschien wat sterker te zijn geweest dan de kracht van de analyse. It was fascinating to learn how a successful recruitment of a Russian FSB agent was an imporant factor for the success in establishing a good relationship with Russia under Mikhail Gorbatschev. I needed something exciting to read and did not really check who Mr Omand is until I had read the first twenty or so pages.Thanks to the publisher and Netgalley for the opportunity to review this book, all views are my own. But Omand also identifies disconfirmation bias as the fierce scrutiny of anything that doesn’t fit your world view, while letting information that does fit go unchallenged. I can imagine that the publishers were dazzled by the author's background and qualifications: a former director of GCHQ, seven years on the Joint Intelligence Committee, permanent secretary at the Home Office and a professor of war studies.